As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are $800M at 2%, $1B at 2% and $5B at 2%.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800M | 2% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $1k |
| $1B | 2% | 0.0 pts | −1.6 pts | $0 |
| $2B | 1% | +0.1 pts | 0.0 pts | $0 |
| $3B | 1% | 0.0 pts | −0.1 pts | $0 |
| $5B | 2% | 0.0 pts | +0.2 pts | $395 |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a “$1B” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| tradexplorer | $1B · No | $8k | +$787 |
| 12313 | $800M · No | $7k | +$3k |
| getrichall | $1B · No | $6k | +$27 |
| Gambler1968 | $1B · No | $5k | +$5k |
| tradexplorer | $800M · No | $5k | +$748 |
| tradexplorer | $2B · No | $4k | +$332 |
| 999ssf | $1B · No | $4k | +$100 |
| hose | $1B · No | $4k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.