As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are $50M at 10%, $100M at 8% and $200M at 8%.
$50M moved the most this week: 16% to 10% (−5.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 10% | −1.0 pts | −5.0 pts | $2k |
| $100M | 8% | 0.0 pts | −2.8 pts | $1k |
| $200M | 8% | +3.5 pts | −2.0 pts | $1k |
| $500M | 3% | −0.2 pts | −1.8 pts | $595 |
| $2B | 1% | −0.6 pts | −3.0 pts | $631 |
A price of 10% means traders pay about $0.10 for a “$50M” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe2b4…3c5a | $50M · No | $2k | +$520 |
| alanhutton | $100M · No | $1k | +$23 |
| alanhutton | $50M · No | $1k | +$13 |
| thanksBTC | $50M · No | $1k | +$7 |
| yulinjin | $50M · No | $825 | +$30 |
| gydmasg | $50M · No | $697 | +$98 |
| HugeLoss | $50M · Yes | $668 | −$1k |
| Beyonddream | $50M · No | $626 | +$113 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.