As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 6% chance for “OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027”, up from 6% a week ago.
It moved −1.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 16% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | −1.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $8k |
A price of 6% means traders pay about $0.06 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| CryptoLBL | No | $21k | +$2k |
| thoodr | No | $15k | +$636 |
| yen4u | No | $5k | +$3k |
| Hyperlong | No | $5k | +$436 |
| Jjw | No | $3k | +$227 |
| Lexington | No | $3k | +$207 |
| lassenstr | No | $2k | +$327 |
| gummy-usb | No | $2k | +$384 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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