As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 3% by 31 December, 11% by 30 June 2027, 20% by 31 December 2027 and 31% by 31 December 2028.
The 30 June 2027 line moved the most this week: 14% to 11% (−2.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 3% | 0.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $0 |
| 30 June 2027 | 11% | −2.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $2k |
| 31 December 2027 | 20% | −1.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2028 | 31% | −0.5 pts | −1.5 pts | $552 |
A price of 31% means traders pay about $0.31 for the 31 December 2028 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| thanksmom | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$103 |
| 1nvoker1 | June 30, 2027 · No | $4k | +$236 |
| SmartBoyBilly | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$12 |
| 1nvoker1 | December 31, 2028 · No | $1k | +$108 |
| Debosnys | December 31, 2028 · Yes | $1k | −$590 |
| 0x5ecd…0787 | December 31, 2028 · No | $897 | +$93 |
| thoodr | December 31, 2026 · No | $886 | +$7 |
| momo513 | December 31, 2026 · No | $875 | −$7 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.