As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 3% by 31 December, 10% by 30 June 2027, 20% by 31 December 2027 and 30% by 31 December 2028.
The 31 December 2028 line moved the most this week: 33% to 30% (−3.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 3% | −0.1 pts | −0.4 pts | $0 |
| 30 June 2027 | 10% | −1.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $4k |
| 31 December 2027 | 20% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $299 |
| 31 December 2028 | 30% | −3.0 pts | −3.5 pts | $0 |
A price of 30% means traders pay about $0.30 for the 31 December 2028 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| thanksmom | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$283 |
| 1nvoker1 | December 31, 2028 · No | $4k | +$141 |
| Debosnys | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$80 |
| 0xd8d5…8935 | June 30, 2027 · No | $2k | +$125 |
| 0xd8d5…8935 | December 31, 2027 · No | $1k | −$23 |
| Debosnys | December 31, 2028 · Yes | $1k | −$526 |
| 1nvoker1 | December 31, 2027 · No | $1k | +$4 |
| Mustafalafel | June 30, 2027 · No | $895 | +$42 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in AI & Tech · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.