The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 99% chance for “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more”, up from 23% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | +0.1 pts | +76.0 pts | $17k |
A price of 99% means traders pay about $0.99 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| cookiejar | Yes | $9k | +$7k |
| auros2 | Yes | $1k | +$1k |
| invincibles | Yes | $1k | +$1k |
| shiifoo | Yes | $898 | +$732 |
| 0x04fb…5968 | Yes | $564 | +$55 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.