As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are $100M at 4%, $700M at 4% and $1B at 5%.
$100M moved the most this week: 11% to 4% (−7.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 4% | −1.5 pts | −7.0 pts | $7k |
| $700M | 4% | −0.1 pts | +0.2 pts | $2k |
| $1B | 5% | 0.0 pts | +0.6 pts | $0 |
| $2B | 3% | 0.0 pts | +0.1 pts | $0 |
| $3B | 2% | −0.2 pts | −1.6 pts | $0 |
A price of 5% means traders pay about $0.05 for a “$1B” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| hitjnn214 | $100M · No | $25k | +$6k |
| hsefhsjdkfs | $1B · No | $7k | +$769 |
| MaxEnt | $100M · No | $5k | +$851 |
| fwed33 | $700M · No | $5k | +$1k |
| imjustalarp | $3B · No | $3k | +$499 |
| zzaqq2 | $2B · No | $3k | +$165 |
| XieGuangKun | $700M · No | $3k | +$1k |
| JiuMoZhiDaShi | $700M · No | $3k | +$961 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.