As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are $100M at 14%, $250M at 10% and $500M at 10%.
$250M moved the most this week: 16% to 10% (−5.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 14% | +0.5 pts | −4.5 pts | $4k |
| $250M | 10% | 0.0 pts | −5.5 pts | $7k |
| $500M | 10% | −0.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $2k |
| $1B | 6% | 0.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $0 |
| $2B | 4% | −0.4 pts | −2.1 pts | $0 |
A price of 14% means traders pay about $0.14 for a “$100M” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MaxEnt | $100M · No | $11k | +$5k |
| mainantagonist | $250M · No | $10k | +$1k |
| mainantagonist | $500M · No | $9k | +$4k |
| MaxEnt | $250M · No | $9k | +$6k |
| slyfox123 | $250M · No | $7k | +$6k |
| mainantagonist | $100M · No | $7k | +$3k |
| bearishoncrypto | $500M · No | $6k | +$638 |
| hedgemaxi | $500M · No | $5k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.