As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026”, down from 3% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 9% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.1 pts | −1.2 pts | $0 |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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