The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is María Elvira Salazar (R) at 98%, followed by Eliott Rodriguez (D) at 2%.
Eliott Rodriguez (D) moved the most this week: 38% to 2% (−35.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| María Elvira Salazar (R) | 98% | +1.3 pts | +34.9 pts | $62k |
| Eliott Rodriguez (D) | 2% | −1.5 pts | −35.6 pts | $58k |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a “María Elvira Salazar (R)” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Eliott Rodriguez (D) · No | $24k | – |
| mrworldwide | María Elvira Salazar (R) · Yes | $9k | +$112 |
| Melody626 | María Elvira Salazar (R) · Yes | $8k | +$3k |
| Crypto-Joe | María Elvira Salazar (R) · Yes | $6k | +$26 |
| 0x63bf…e319 | María Elvira Salazar (R) · Yes | $6k | +$1k |
| Magician5342 | María Elvira Salazar (R) · Yes | $3k | −$17 |
| mrworldwide | Eliott Rodriguez (D) · No | $2k | +$33 |
| rigatohni | María Elvira Salazar (R) · Yes | $2k | +$636 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.