As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 12% by 31 December 2027, 20% by 31 December 2028 and 30% by 31 December 2029.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2027 | 12% | 0.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2028 | 20% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2029 | 30% | 0.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $1k |
A price of 30% means traders pay about $0.30 for the 31 December 2029 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Car | December 31, 2029 · No | $12k | −$355 |
| misterbigbear | December 31, 2027 · No | $10k | −$100 |
| bettingonwar | December 31, 2029 · Yes | $5k | −$128 |
| justme003 | December 31, 2027 · No | $5k | −$43 |
| cryptoincome | December 31, 2027 · No | $4k | +$120 |
| kekkone | December 31, 2029 · No | $2k | −$9 |
| neutralwave23 | December 31, 2027 · No | $1k | +$34 |
| 1nvoker1 | December 31, 2028 · Yes | $1k | +$217 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.