The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Republican Party at 90%, followed by Bill Hill at 10%.
Republican Party moved the most this week: 80% to 90% (+10.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | 90% | −5.3 pts | +10.8 pts | $61k |
| Bill Hill | 10% | +5.2 pts | −7.8 pts | $41k |
A price of 90% means traders pay about $0.90 for a “Republican Party” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| alfabetica | Republican Party · Yes | $7k | +$232 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Bill Hill · No | $6k | – |
| mrworldwide | Republican Party · Yes | $5k | −$129 |
| Votei14Voude22 | Republican Party · Yes | $4k | −$269 |
| Magician5342 | Bill Hill · No | $4k | −$203 |
| mrworldwide | Bill Hill · No | $3k | −$87 |
| Crypto-Joe | Republican Party · Yes | $2k | −$109 |
| Crypto-Joe | Bill Hill · No | $2k | −$81 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Politics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.