As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 12% by 31 December and 68% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2026 line moved the most this week: 26% to 12% (−15.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 12% | −0.5 pts | −15.0 pts | $3k |
| 31 December 2027 | 68% | 0.0 pts | +4.0 pts | $0 |
A price of 68% means traders pay about $0.68 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| M2sx92kljs42 | December 31, 2026 · No | $10k | +$2k |
| Gdub | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$2k |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$1k |
| enrico-vasaio | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$2k |
| purplegatto | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$948 |
| 1dad | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$462 |
| yen4u | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$751 |
| 0xa169…1b73 | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$296 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in AI & Tech · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.