The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 120-125m at 87%, followed by 115-120m at 8% and 125-130m at 6%.
120-125m moved the most this week: 18% to 87% (+68.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120-125m | 87% | −7.2 pts | +68.8 pts | $19k |
| 115-120m | 8% | +4.3 pts | −18.9 pts | $17k |
| 125-130m | 6% | +5.6 pts | −2.8 pts | $20k |
A price of 87% means traders pay about $0.87 for a “120-125m” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| gandalf | 125-130m · No | $11k | +$602 |
| eunice-561 | 120-125m · Yes | $7k | +$246 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 125-130m · No | $5k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 115-120m · No | $5k | – |
| eunice-561 | 115-120m · No | $3k | +$156 |
| xtxpleasecallme | 125-130m · No | $2k | +$75 |
| gandalf | 120-125m · Yes | $2k | +$167 |
| AzariahJuby | 125-130m · Yes | $1k | −$688 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.