As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Kylian Mbappé at 46%, followed by Raphinha at 40% and Lamine Yamal at 6%.
Raphinha moved the most this week: 44% to 40% (−3.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 46% | +1.0 pts | +2.5 pts | $3k |
| Raphinha | 40% | +4.0 pts | −3.5 pts | $2k |
| Lamine Yamal | 6% | +0.4 pts | −1.4 pts | $244 |
A price of 46% means traders pay about $0.46 for a “Kylian Mbappé” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Lamine Yamal · No | $15k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Raphinha · No | $10k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Kylian Mbappé · No | $9k | – |
| leegunner | Kylian Mbappé · Yes | $2k | +$48 |
| BlueBase-568 | Kylian Mbappé · No | $2k | +$43 |
| yoyobb2018 | Kylian Mbappé · Yes | $1k | −$732 |
| Socialista | Kylian Mbappé · Yes | $1k | −$48 |
| Cyberflems | Raphinha · Yes | $1k | −$192 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.