The favourite on Polymarket is Zohran Mamdani at 22%, followed by James Talarico at 17% and Mark Carney at 14%.
James Talarico moved the most this week: 7% to 17% (+9.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 22% | −5.0 pts | −7.0 pts | $12k |
| James Talarico | 17% | +4.5 pts | +9.4 pts | $13k |
| Mark Carney | 14% | +0.5 pts | −3.5 pts | $5k |
| Pope Leo XIV | 11% | −2.5 pts | −6.0 pts | $10k |
| Marco Rubio | 4% | +0.2 pts | −2.9 pts | $7k |
A price of 17% means traders pay $0.17 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Zohran Mamdani · Yes | $2k | −$820 |
| cambridgeisaac | Zohran Mamdani · No | $854 | +$2k |
| pkz | James Talarico · No | $801 | +$3k |
| paddaa | James Talarico · Yes | $744 | +$229 |
| arbandy | Pope Leo XIV · Yes | $647 | −$268 |
| arbandy | Zohran Mamdani · No | $620 | +$1k |
| goingsocial | Pope Leo XIV · Yes | $550 | −$100 |
| knrad | Pope Leo XIV · No | $534 | +$4k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.