The favourite on Polymarket is Yes at 70%, followed by Spread -4.5 at 55% and Spread -5.5 at 52%.
Spread -5.5 moved the most this week: 42% to 52% (+9.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 0.0 pts | +6.0 pts | $6k |
| Spread -4.5 | 55% | +2.0 pts | +9.0 pts | $22k |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% | 0.0 pts | +9.5 pts | $21k |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% | 0.0 pts | −5.5 pts | $4k |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% | +0.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $734 |
A price of 55% means traders pay $0.55 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pwaddler | Spread -4.5 · Yes | $10k | +$337 |
| Pwaddler | Spread -5.5 · Yes | $9k | +$143 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -5.5 · No | $7k | −$193 |
| VeryLucky888 | Spread -4.5 · No | $2k | −$198 |
| 0x6387…95dc | Yes · Yes | $2k | −$3 |
| AnonymousUsername | Yes · No | $1k | −$741 |
| pltrkr111 | Spread -4.5 · No | $1k | −$141 |
| mooseborzoi | O/U 40.5 · No | $953 | +$43 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.