The favourite on Polymarket is Yes at 58%, followed by Spread -1.5 at 56% and Spread -2.5 at 52%.
Spread -3.5 moved the most this week: 56% to 42% (−13.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | +1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $13k |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% | +1.5 pts | −8.0 pts | $2k |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% | +1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $80k |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% | +1.0 pts | −13.0 pts | $18k |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% | −4.5 pts | −10.5 pts | $7k |
A price of 52% means traders pay $0.53 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multicoloured-Serf | Spread -2.5 · Yes | $30k | −$136 |
| gmpm2 | Spread -2.5 · No | $16k | −$1k |
| 0x3dfb…abaf | Spread -2.5 · No | $12k | −$1k |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Spread -2.5 · No | $10k | −$700 |
| monkeymashingkeyboard | Spread -2.5 · Yes | $10k | +$152 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $6k | −$30 |
| vimtodcs | Yes · Yes | $3k | −$20 |
| AnonymousUsername | Yes · No | $2k | −$596 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.