The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 28%, followed by November 30 at 16%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 23% to 16% (−7.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28% | 0.0 pts | −5.0 pts | $138k |
| November 30 | 16% | +1.5 pts | −7.5 pts | $76k |
A price of 28% means traders pay $0.28 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa | December 31 · Yes | $3k | −$203 |
| Car | November 30 · Yes | $2k | −$8 |
| LehmanBrother2.0 | December 31 · No | $1k | +$2k |
| siick | December 31 · No | $855 | +$1k |
| Cucumber. | November 30 · Yes | $851 | −$103 |
| MEPP | November 30 · Yes | $775 | −$414 |
| anoin123 | November 30 · No | $662 | +$3k |
| 080526 | December 31 · No | $619 | +$901 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.