The favourite on Polymarket is 9°C or higher at 57%, followed by 8°C at 27% and 7°C at 14%.
6°C moved the most this week: 30% to 3% (−27.2 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9°C or higher | 57% | +34.5 pts | +20.5 pts | $6k |
| 8°C | 27% | −7.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $2k |
| 7°C | 14% | −11.5 pts | −13.5 pts | $3k |
| 6°C | 3% | −10.7 pts | −27.2 pts | $1k |
A price of 57% means traders pay $0.57 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 8°C · No | $211 | −$211 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 7°C · No | $109 | −$109 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 6°C · No | $22 | −$22 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.