The favourite on Polymarket is November 15 at 82%, followed by November 13 at 80% and November 11 at 66%.
November 11 moved the most this week: 41% to 66% (+25.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 82% | 0.0 pts | +7.0 pts | $38k |
| November 13 | 80% | −2.5 pts | +16.0 pts | $23k |
| November 11 | 66% | +3.0 pts | +25.5 pts | $30k |
| November 10 | 42% | −12.0 pts | −12.0 pts | $4k |
| November 9 | 3% | −2.4 pts | −18.5 pts | $21k |
A price of 82% means traders pay $0.82 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| BrownBees | November 15 · Yes | $4k | +$416 |
| 0x36da…907b | November 11 · No | $4k | −$2k |
| Pump | November 15 · No | $3k | −$2k |
| BrownBees | November 13 · Yes | $3k | +$169 |
| Pump | November 13 · No | $2k | −$1k |
| smoke-free | November 15 · Yes | $2k | +$882 |
| 4ts3hc | November 13 · Yes | $2k | +$59 |
| 0x9941e...5C52f7B | November 11 · Yes | $1k | +$23 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.