The favourite on Polymarket is March 31, 2027 at 20%, followed by December 31 at 8%.
December 31 moved the most this week: 16% to 8% (−9.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 20% | −0.5 pts | −9.0 pts | $90k |
| December 31 | 8% | −1.0 pts | −9.0 pts | $355k |
A price of 8% means traders pay $0.07 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pilimili | December 31 · Yes | $17k | −$9k |
| lastminwin | December 31 · Yes | $10k | −$6k |
| Avamax | December 31 · No | $9k | +$91k |
| Kris-Future | December 31 · Yes | $8k | −$6k |
| Votei14Voude22 | March 31, 2027 · No | $7k | +$21k |
| lastminwin | March 31, 2027 · Yes | $7k | −$879 |
| boyau | December 31 · No | $7k | +$73k |
| ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | December 31 · No | $6k | +$63k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.