The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 10%, followed by November 30 at 3%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 6% to 3% (−3.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10% | +2.0 pts | −3.0 pts | $109k |
| November 30 | 3% | −0.4 pts | −3.1 pts | $51k |
A price of 10% means traders pay $0.10 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | December 31 · Yes | $26k | −$20k |
| Votei14Voude22 | December 31 · No | $9k | +$69k |
| 65765757 | December 31 · No | $8k | +$58k |
| GayPride | December 31 · Yes | $6k | −$4k |
| hymolu | December 31 · No | $6k | +$45k |
| lastminwin | December 31 · Yes | $5k | −$4k |
| anoin123 | December 31 · No | $4k | +$29k |
| 5038813185 | December 31 · Yes | $4k | −$4k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.