The favourite on Polymarket is 1.8T+ at 30%, followed by 1.2–1.5T at 29% and 1.5–1.8T at 26%.
1.8T+ moved the most this week: 54% to 30% (−24.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.8T+ | 30% | −7.0 pts | −24.0 pts | $56k |
| 1.2–1.5T | 29% | +8.9 pts | +19.8 pts | $4k |
| 1.5–1.8T | 26% | −5.7 pts | −3.2 pts | $3k |
| 0.9–1.2T | 14% | +9.0 pts | +9.0 pts | $4k |
| 0.6–0.9T | 2% | +1.5 pts | +1.1 pts | $9k |
A price of 30% means traders pay $0.30 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1.8T+ · No | $7k | −$7k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1.2–1.5T · No | $7k | −$7k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1.5–1.8T · No | $7k | −$7k |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | 1.8T+ · Yes | $5k | −$3k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.9–1.2T · No | $3k | −$3k |
| BurstedBubble | 1.8T+ · No | $3k | +$1k |
| 0xa5d8…ff3a | 1.8T+ · Yes | $2k | −$3k |
| balthazar | 1.2–1.5T · Yes | $2k | +$1k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.