The favourite on Polymarket is Democrats 14-16% at 89%, followed by Democrats 12-14% at 7% and Democrats 16%+ at 2%.
Democrats 14-16% moved the most this week: 4% to 89% (+84.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 14-16% | 89% | +14.5 pts | +84.6 pts | $70k |
| Democrats 12-14% | 7% | −14.1 pts | −8.9 pts | $73k |
| Democrats 16%+ | 2% | +0.8 pts | −2.1 pts | $32k |
A price of 7% means traders pay $0.07 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Democrats 14-16% · No | $27k | −$27k |
| AzariahJuby | Democrats 14-16% · Yes | $6k | +$4k |
| Gaditima | Democrats 14-16% · No | $5k | −$3k |
| Addarash | Democrats 14-16% · Yes | $4k | +$684 |
| JohnP92 | Democrats 14-16% · Yes | $4k | +$2k |
| gandalf | Democrats 14-16% · Yes | $4k | +$3k |
| eunice-561 | Democrats 14-16% · Yes | $3k | +$128 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Democrats 12-14% · No | $2k | −$2k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.